The Dread
Sheet

Every score, and how last week's picks did against them: 2-3 for the week, 18-12 on the season. Every pick was between 51% and 55%, so 2-3 says little. The two highest-confidence picks, 54.7% and 54.4%, both missed, and the two hits were the blowouts, by 49.32 and 73.70.

PA doubles as schedule luck, all-play is the record against all nine teams every week, and Wk 6 bench is what the best possible lineup would have added. NoseyNabers (27.3) is the only team that benched more than it lost by; winniehartley's 28.5 was the most, but it won by 73.70. winniehartley has the best all-play, 41-13, and has faced the fewest points, 775.8; NoseyNabers has the worst all-play, 11-43. OldeRowanRiot is 3-3 with the second-worst all-play, 17-37. Smallwood Retrievers has faced 921.0 points, the most in the league.

Top Performers

Best actual starts, and the bench decisions that'll sting longest.

Three of the five bench entries are quarterbacks, and all three out-scored the starter: Trevor Lawrence (28.3) over C.J. Stroud (24.0), Tyler Shough (27.0) over Kirk Cousins (19.5), and Matthew Stafford (16.9) over Dak Prescott (13.0). Last week's start/sit and free-agent calls, scored. Right and followed: Kenneth Walker over Jahmyr Gibbs, who was on bye (27.9), Luther Burden for Justin Jefferson's bye (17.5), Bryce Young if Lamar Jackson sat (19.8; Jackson scored 0.0), Isaiah Likely over Harold Fannin (23.9 against 1.9), and the free-agent adds of the Chiefs defense (16.8) and Woody Marks (10.1). Right and ignored: Matthew Stafford over Dak Prescott (16.9 against 13.0), Rome Odunze over TreVeyon Henderson (6.9 against 3.0), Hunter Henry over Blake Corum (14.8 against 14.0), and Trevor Lawrence for Joe Burrow's bye (28.3, while Stroud started). Wrong and followed: Kirk Cousins over Tyler Shough (19.5 against 27.0) and Juwan Johnson at tight end (0.0). Wrong and ignored: Tetairoa McMillan over Bhayshul Tuten (14.6 against 24.7) and Devaughn Vele over Keon Coleman (7.2 against 15.9, though both sat). And of the nine players Team by Team listed as Out, four played: Jalen Coker (15.7), DeVonta Smith (20.5), Caleb Williams (16.5) and TreVeyon Henderson (3.0). Lamar Jackson, David Montgomery, Saquon Barkley, Breece Hall and Deebo Samuel scored 0.0.

Every move since the last blotter ended on Oct 12, pulled across both transaction rounds so nothing between editions slips through. Five went through waivers and fourteen were free agency, first click wins. Green is a player arriving, red a player leaving. Times are Eastern. Unauthorized Use of No. 5 made six of the 19 moves and scored 80.27.

The real 14-week schedule played out 50,000 times. Each team's weekly mean is a 50/50 blend of its optimal Week 7 projection and what it has actually scored, with a 27-point standard deviation; top six make it. Same method as last week, so every change below is the week, not the model.

H00dedWizard rose 41.5% to 81.7%, the biggest move on the board, on an 8.17-point win over the last unbeaten team — though 15.7 points of its 133.2 Week 7 projection are David Montgomery and Mike Evans, both listed Out, and half of its mean is that projection. trevorh84 rose 78.7% to 97.9% and has the second-best title odds, 24.7%, behind winniehartley's 32.1%. Unauthorized Use of No. 5 rose 83.3% to 87.1% after the lowest score of the season: Detroit's return lifts its projection from 125.2 to 142.5. The reverse hit OldeRowanRiot, 17.5% to 3.5%, after winning by 20.97, because Buffalo's bye drops its projection to 80.5. jfinau fell 52.5% to 27.5% and NoseyNabers 23.8% to 1.6%, which now has the highest chance of finishing last, 40.6%, ahead of Smallwood Retrievers' 37.7%. winniehartley's 100.0% is a rounded 99.95-plus, not a clinch. Eight games remain.

Five predictions for Week 7, timestamped before kickoff so they can be wrong in public again. Each side's number is its best legal lineup, not what its manager will actually start — Team by Team, below, has that gap.

The surest slate of the season: every pick is above 64%, and the 81.6% on NoseyNabers over OldeRowanRiot is the highest confidence filed, over Week 5's 74.9%. It is mostly a bye-week reading — Buffalo takes OldeRowanRiot's quarterback, tight end and two receivers, leaving 80.5 — and if OldeRowanRiot adds free-agent Kyler Murray the margin drops to 14.1. Several numbers also count players listed Out or IR: Lamar Jackson for She'sTheMann, Mike Evans and David Montgomery for H00dedWizard, Breece Hall for Team Fawley, Saquon Barkley for No. 5, Rashee Rice for jfinau, Quinshon Judkins for Smallwood Retrievers. Zeroing them moves four margins (G1 to 25.3, G3 to 30.7, G4 to 13.3, G5 to 19.4) but flips none. Last week the same check said no pick would flip, and the one it covered least, jfinau over OldeRowanRiot, missed by 20.97 because Jalen Coker and DeVonta Smith, both listed Out, played. The numbers stay as Sleeper has them. Come back Tuesday and find out how this one aged.

Ranked on each team's best legal Week 7 lineup, which is why the order differs from the odds table. The bench gap is what that lineup beats the one actually set, if nothing changes before kickoff. Buffalo, the Chargers, Washington and Jacksonville are on bye: thirteen starters on seven teams.

Every unrostered player with a real projection, tried against every rostered player on each team, through the same optimal-lineup math as everything else on this page. One suggestion per team: whichever drop-for-add raises that team's best-lineup total the most.

The Texans defense is wanted by four teams, Kyler Murray by three and Trey Smack by two — first click wins. Most of this table fills a bye-week hole rather than upgrading anyone: OldeRowanRiot's +20.3 is a quarterback to replace Josh Allen, and NoseyNabers and Team Fawley both have a kicker on bye. Josh Jacobs, trevorh84's +1.0, is listed NA for a personal absence and sits fourth on Green Bay's depth chart, so skip it. Jalen Hurts, claimed and dropped by No. 5 within two days, is on injured reserve.

Every pair of rosters, run through the same optimal-lineup math: does swapping these two players raise both sides' best-lineup total? Ranked by whichever team benefits less — the point is mutual upside, not a heist.

OldeRowanRiot is on eight of the top ten rows: with the lowest projection in the league by 34 points, it has the most to gain from anyone's spare quarterback, kicker or defense. Seattle's defense appears three times, and two of its buyers, Smallwood Retrievers and jfinau, have a defense on bye. Jalen Coker, the receiver this page called Out last week, is wanted by three teams. Tyler Warren, who is listed Out, is the 5.4 in OldeRowanRiot's row with No. 5, so that one is softer than it looks.