Week 3 left one team unbeaten and one winless, and the picks went 4-1 — the best week yet — lifting the season to 9-6. Team Fawley is 3-0 after a 51.93-point win over OldeRowanRiot; Smallwood Retrievers is 0-3 even after its best score of the year, 147.53. OldeRowanRiot is the week's casualty: a 93.35, its worst of the year, and playoff odds down from 53.6% to 5.9%. Unauthorized Use of No. 5 (52.9% to 81.8%) and jfinau (45.6% to 73.6%) gained the most, and jfinau's 161.30 was the high score of the week. The odds model also changed this week — see the note under Playoff Odds.
Every score, and how last week's picks did against them.
The pick had winniehartley by 18.5 — right, but by 8.66, and the model's surest call of the season very nearly slipped. Smallwood posted its best score of the year, 147.53, and is still 0-3 — the only winless team left. Brock Bowers's 27.6 sat on its bench, the same swap this page flagged a week ago.
The week's only missed pick. trevorh84 was favored by 13.6, the second-surest call on the card, and lost by 8.21 — 1-2, with the highest projection in the league. The real bench gap was 34.6: Luther Burden, Jaylen Warren and Tony Pollard were all better starts than the players who got the spots.
Picked by 1.1, delivered by 31.61. jfinau's 161.30 was the high score of the week, built on Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 35.36 — and Bo Nix's 25.14 sat on the bench behind Jordan Love, the swap this page has flagged before.
Called by 3.5, won by 17.20. Bijan Robinson's 35.30 was the third-best start of the week, and She'sTheMann's playoff odds went 68.3% to 82.7%. Michael Wilson's 25.9 rode the bench and it still didn't matter.
Fawley by 9.0 was the call; 51.93 was the result, the widest margin of the week. Team Fawley is the only 3-0 team left. OldeRowanRiot's 93.35 is its worst score of the year and took its playoff odds from 53.6% to 5.9% — the biggest drop in the league.
| Team | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 3-0 | 482.87 | 410.40 |
| winniehartley | 2-1 | 482.74 | 450.84 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 2-1 | 459.67 | 401.60 |
| jfinau | 2-1 | 445.36 | 417.04 |
| She’sTheMann | 2-1 | 435.69 | 430.48 |
| H00dedWizard | 1-2 | 439.84 | 468.64 |
| trevorh84 | 1-2 | 430.37 | 443.73 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 1-2 | 389.02 | 435.04 |
| NoseyNabers | 1-2 | 352.52 | 413.23 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 0-3 | 370.41 | 417.49 |
Best actual starts, and the bench decisions that'll sting longest.
| Started | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | winniehartley | 41.4 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | jfinau | 35.4 |
| Bijan Robinson, RB | She’sTheMann | 35.3 |
| Brock Purdy, QB | Smallwood Retrievers | 31.3 |
| Drake London, WR | winniehartley | 28.4 |
| Benched | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers, TE | Smallwood Retrievers | 27.6 |
| Michael Wilson, WR | She’sTheMann | 25.9 |
| Bo Nix, QB | jfinau | 25.1 |
| Tyler Shough, QB | winniehartley | 24.8 |
| Harold Fannin, TE | H00dedWizard | 24.1 |
Brock Bowers (Smallwood) and Bo Nix (jfinau) are repeat entries here — both swaps were on this page going into the week. Jahmyr Gibbs's 41.4 for winniehartley was the best single start.
Ranked on Week 4's projected points, which is why the order differs from the odds table further down. All-play and bench gap are both through Week 3 — the honest record and the honest coaching grade.
Lost to Unauthorized Use of No. 5 by 8.21 and sits 1-2, yet projects highest in the league for Week 4 (157.4). Playoff odds are 80.1%, down from 90.1%: the model now weighs the 143.5 points a game it has actually scored alongside the projection. The bench is the leak: 34.6 real points left there in Week 3. Justin Jefferson is Out again; Jaylen Warren and Luther Burden over Jacory Croskey-Merritt and Jameson Williams is worth 8.2 points.
Beat Smallwood 156.19 to 147.53, and Jahmyr Gibbs's 41.4 was the best start of the week. It did that while leaving 37.7 points on the bench — Tyler Shough alone scored 24.8 behind Jalen Hurts. All-play is 23-4, the best in the league, and odds rose from 86.6% to 96.6%. Mark Andrews is Questionable; Shough over Hurts and Kyle Pitts over Andrews is worth 1.9.
Beat H00dedWizard by 17.20, and playoff odds leapt 68.3% to 82.7%. Five of the eleven transactions on the Blotter are this team's — Blake Corum in, Blake Corum out, Aaron Jones, Rashod Bateman, Michael Wilson. Wilson over a Questionable Jaylen Waddle is the fix this week, 2.0 points.
Lost by 17.20 and is 1-2, and its 468.64 points against is the hardest schedule in the league. Odds still edged up, 62.1% to 71.7%, on a projection that rose to 142.1 — the wrong direction for a loss, if a smaller move than the old model gave. Real bench gap 30.5, with Harold Fannin's 24.1 among the points left behind. Mike Evans is Out; Fannin over Emeka Egbuka is worth 2.0.
3-0, the only unbeaten team left, after a 51.93-point win. Odds rose from 94.1% to 98.1%, the best in the league, even with the projection down from 144.0 to 137.9 with Breece Hall Out. The Week 4 fix is the biggest on its roster: Trevor Lawrence, Ladd McConkey and Carnell Tate over Joe Burrow, Hall and MarShawn Lloyd, 15.7 points.
Posted 161.30, the week's high score, and beat NoseyNabers by 31.61; Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 35.36 was the second-best start of the week. Playoff odds went 45.6% to 73.6%. The Bo Nix / Jordan Love seesaw is costing it again — Nix's 25.14 sat on the bench — and Nix over Love is worth 0.8 this time.
Lost by 31.61 and is 1-2, with the league's lowest points for (352.52) and an all-play record of 3-24. But the real bench gap was only 7.2 — this is a roster problem, not a lineup problem. The good news is on the injury report: Nico Collins and Puka Nacua are off the Out list, and starting them plus Colston Loveland is worth 19.5 points, the biggest fix on the board.
Beat trevorh84 146.71 to 138.50 — the only pick that missed this week — and is 2-1, odds up from 52.9% to 81.8%, the largest gain in the league. De'Von Achane is on IR and still occupying a lineup slot; Zay Flowers and Rhamondre Stevenson over Achane and Juwan Johnson is worth 18.8 points.
0-3 with a season-best 147.53 — 8.66 short of winniehartley. Brock Bowers's 27.6 sat on the bench, and 37.7 real points were left there in total. Odds 8.7% to 2.6%. Terry McLaurin and Bowers over Deebo Samuel and Quinshon Judkins is worth 9.4 points this week; whether it happens is another question.
93.35, its worst score of the year, and a 51.93-point loss. Playoff odds fell from 53.6% to 5.9% — 47.7 points, the largest drop in the league — and it now projects lowest in the league by more than ten points (115.6). Josh Allen is Questionable and Jalen Coker is Out. Emanuel Wilson and Dalton Schultz over Tank Bigsby and Brian Robinson is worth 9.0.
Every move since the last edition. Free agency is open — no waivers, no budget, first click wins. Green is a player arriving, red a player leaving; in a trade both sides are arrivals, so both are neutral.
| When | Who | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 23 · 07:06 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | + Saquon Barkley · − Xavier Hutchinson | Won the waiver claim. |
| Sept 23 · 07:57 | She’sTheMann | Saquon Barkley claim failed | Barkley had already gone to No. 5. |
| Sept 23 · 07:58 | She’sTheMann | + Blake Corum · − Dallas Goedert | The consolation, a minute later. Goedert had been Questionable. |
| Sept 23 · 08:07 | winniehartley | + Tre Tucker · − Jordan Mason | First of two. |
| Sept 23 · 08:19 | winniehartley | + Carolina Panthers · − Las Vegas Raiders | A defense swap. |
| Sept 23 · 08:28 | OldeRowanRiot | + Jonah Coleman · − Jonathon Brooks | Brooks, Questionable and projecting zero, is gone. |
| Sept 23 · 18:55 | Smallwood Retrievers | + Denzel Boston · − Brian Thomas | The only Smallwood move of the week. |
| Sept 24 · 20:46 | She’sTheMann | + Aaron Jones · − Blake Corum | Corum lasted a day and a half. |
| Sept 24 · 20:47 | She’sTheMann | + Rashod Bateman | No corresponding drop — an open bench spot. |
| Sept 25 · 01:52 | She’sTheMann | + Michael Wilson · − Rashod Bateman | Bateman lasted five hours. |
| Sept 25 · 11:19 | Team Fawley | + San Francisco 49ers · − Pittsburgh Steelers | A Friday defense swap for the only unbeaten team. |
Every team's optimal projected lineup as its weekly mean, 27-point standard deviation, played across the real 14-week schedule. Top six make it. Percentages sum to 600 and 100 respectively, which is how you know the model is playing fair.
Method change, Sept 29. Each team's weekly mean used to be that week's optimal projection alone, which swings with injuries and byes — it had 1-2 trevorh84 at 94.4% and OldeRowanRiot at 3.3% off a single injury report. It is now a 50/50 blend of the projection and what the team has actually scored so far. Earlier editions' odds used the old method, so part of every change below is the method, not the week.
| Team | Proj | Exp W | Odds | Playoff | Title | Finish last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 137.9 | 9.9 | 98.1% | 22.7% | 0.0% | |
| winniehartley | 147.6 | 9.2 | 96.6% | 27.0% | 0.0% | |
| She’sTheMann | 146.4 | 8.0 | 82.7% | 11.4% | 0.2% | |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 132.9 | 8.0 | 81.8% | 9.2% | 0.2% | |
| trevorh84 | 157.5 | 7.6 | 80.1% | 14.0% | 0.4% | |
| jfinau | 136.8 | 7.5 | 73.6% | 7.6% | 0.4% | |
| H00dedWizard | 142.2 | 7.3 | 71.7% | 7.9% | 0.8% | |
| NoseyNabers | 133.7 | 4.5 | 6.8% | 0.1% | 24.2% | |
| OldeRowanRiot | 115.6 | 4.4 | 5.9% | 0.1% | 27.4% | |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 126.4 | 3.6 | 2.6% | 0.1% | 46.4% |
One collapse and two climbs. OldeRowanRiot fell 53.6% to 5.9% after a 51.93-point loss, and NoseyNabers 38.1% to 6.8%. Unauthorized Use of No. 5 rose 52.9% to 81.8% and jfinau 45.6% to 73.6%. trevorh84 is 1-2 and still sits at 80.1% on the strength of the league's best projection; H00dedWizard lost and still went up nine points, the one result the blend doesn't fully explain. Eleven games remain.
Week 3's picks went 4-1, the best week of the season — see The Ledger below for the receipts. Five new predictions for Week 4, timestamped before kickoff so they can be wrong in public again.
The surest call is Unauthorized Use of No. 5 over OldeRowanRiot at 67.5%; the closest is Team Fawley over NoseyNabers, 4.2 points, 54.4%. Last week's version of this paragraph went 4-1, which is more than the model has earned. Come back Tuesday and find out how this one aged.
Four numbers Sleeper computes for nobody, updated with a third played week.
| Team | Bench pts | All-play | Sched luck |
|---|---|---|---|
| winniehartley | 37.7 | 23-4 | 450.8 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 37.7 | 7-20 | 417.5 |
| trevorh84 | 34.6 | 13-14 | 443.7 |
| H00dedWizard | 30.5 | 15-12 | 468.6 |
| jfinau | 26.9 | 15-12 | 417.0 |
| She’sTheMann | 22.2 | 14-13 | 430.5 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 15.4 | 16-11 | 401.6 |
| Team Fawley | 10.1 | 21-6 | 410.4 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 7.4 | 8-19 | 435.0 |
| NoseyNabers | 7.2 | 3-24 | 413.2 |
Sorted worst bench first. winniehartley and Smallwood Retrievers tied for the worst Week 3 bench, 37.7 points each — one won anyway, the other lost by 8.66. winniehartley's 23-4 all-play is now the best in the league, ahead of Team Fawley's 21-6, and NoseyNabers' 3-24 is the worst by four wins. And H00dedWizard has now faced 468.6 points, the toughest schedule draw in the league, while Unauthorized Use of No. 5 has faced the softest, 401.6.
Running record: 9-6. A 4-1 week pulls the season from break-even to three games over. The one miss was the second-surest call on the card. New picks for Week 4 are above.