Week 1 is in the books, and it went about as chalk as five games can go on paper — three of five picks covered, but it's the two misses that make the schedule look rigged. Team Fawley and winniehartley posted the two highest scores in the league and had to play each other, which is either bad luck or a preview of December. NoseyNabers absorbed a 60.7-point beating, the kind of week the schedule itself should apologize for. Five teams are 1-0, one of them left 31 points on the bench doing it, and the draft review that used to lead this page has been retired to the archive if you want the receipts.
Every score, and how last week's picks did against them.
The two highest scores in the league, and they had to play each other in Week 1. Fawley's 184.25 is the top mark anyone's posted so far; winniehartley's 173.79 would have beaten seven of the other nine teams outright. The pick had winnie by 2.7 — wrong, by 13.2.
The closest game of the week, and the pick had it backwards — Smallwood by 3.4, jfinau won it by 6.8. A preseason spent trading away three quarterbacks turned into a Week 1 win; the model still isn't convinced it's repeatable.
The pick called No. 5 by 3.3. The actual margin was 60.73 — the widest blowout in the league by a distance, and the worst week anyone will have all year if the schedule has any mercy left. Right call, wrong universe.
The week's highest-confidence pick (64.8%) came in correct, and undersold it — She'sTheMann by 14.5 projected, 21.7 delivered. OldeRowanRiot's Josh Allen gamble has a long way to go to pay off; it didn't start paying this week.
Called correctly at 5.6, delivered at 22.5 — trevorh84's least draft capital in the league keeps not mattering. H00dedWizard's loss had less to do with the matchup than with its own bench, which the Ledger below has more to say about.
| Team | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 1-0 | 184.25 | 173.79 |
| trevorh84 | 1-0 | 170.14 | 147.67 |
| She’sTheMann | 1-0 | 168.03 | 146.32 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 1-0 | 163.06 | 102.33 |
| jfinau | 1-0 | 140.80 | 134.01 |
| winniehartley | 0-1 | 173.79 | 184.25 |
| H00dedWizard | 0-1 | 147.67 | 170.14 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 0-1 | 146.32 | 168.03 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 0-1 | 134.01 | 140.80 |
| NoseyNabers | 0-1 | 102.33 | 163.06 |
Best actual starts, and the bench decisions that'll sting longest.
| Started | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams, QB | Smallwood Retrievers | 37.3 |
| Josh Allen, QB | OldeRowanRiot | 35.7 |
| Derrick Henry, RB | Team Fawley | 35.3 |
| Kenneth Walker, RB | winniehartley | 34.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | winniehartley | 33.6 |
| Benched | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely, TE | H00dedWizard | 27.8 |
| Jaxson Dart, QB | She’sTheMann | 26.6 |
| Trevor Lawrence, QB | Team Fawley | 26.1 |
| Tyler Shough, QB | winniehartley | 25.2 |
| Dallas Goedert, TE | She’sTheMann | 23.7 |
Team Fawley and Smallwood both had their highest scorer sitting on the bench — Trevor Lawrence outscored whoever Fawley actually started at QB, and Caleb Williams (37.3, the week's single best start) is the same player Smallwood is benching going into Week 2.
Ranked on projected points, which is why the order differs from the odds table further down. Average pick held is the mean draft position of everyone currently rostered — lower means more capital still in the building.
Won by 21.7 in Week 1 and still left 28.9 real points on the bench doing it — the widest coaching gap of anyone who actually won their game. All-play sits at a modest 6-3, behind both other 1-0 teams in the Ledger below. Projects best in the league this week regardless; the only fix on the table is minor, Jadarian Price over D'Andre Swift for 0.7 points.
The Ledger's first honest injustice: 173.79 points, the second-highest score in the league, and an 0-1 record to show for it because the schedule handed them Team Fawley in Week 1. All-play reads 8-1 — the best record in the league, if matchups didn't exist. Also swapped Philadelphia's defense for Las Vegas's this week — a fine streaming move, except it's their own Round 12 pick they just cut loose. One fix left: Mark Andrews over Kyle Pitts, 0.4 points.
The worst week anyone will have this season, ideally: 102.33 points, a 0-9 all-play record, and a 60.7-point loss to open the year. George Kittle sitting behind Colston Loveland didn't help — a real 6.3-point bench gap on a week that couldn't afford to give any back. Projects a respectable third this week regardless; one bad Sunday doesn't linger over 14 weeks. Fix: George Kittle over Rico Dowdle, 0.2 points, a formality at this point.
Dropped from first to fourth in projection despite a 22.5-point Week 1 win, which says more about how good the top three got than anything trevorh84 did wrong. All-play is 7-2, the tightest real bench in the league at just 4.9 points, and playoff odds are still second-best at 82.8%. Fix: Jacory Croskey-Merritt over Luther Burden, 0.7 points — the trade-acquired back who's now started two straight useful weeks.
Delivered the week's only correct pick by a landslide — the model had No. 5 by 3.3, the actual margin was 60.7. Zero transactions since the draft and still nothing needs fixing beyond Jayden Daniels over Jared Goff for 4.1 points; Zay Flowers, ruled Out, is the one real problem, and there's nobody behind him on this bench who solves it.
Lost by 22.5 and it wasn't really the matchup's fault — a real Week 1 bench gap of 38.6 points, worst in the league, with Mahomes, Isaiah Likely and Travis Etienne all outscoring whoever actually started at their spots. That's the six-wideout depth problem from the draft turning into real Tuesday-morning regret. Fix: Tee Higgins over Chris Godwin, 3.8 points, and a longer look at that bench before Sunday.
The lineup with the biggest forward-looking gap in the league — 17.8 points, all Brock Purdy and Brock Bowers sitting behind Caleb Williams and an injured A.J. Brown. Lost Week 1 by 6.8 with an all-play record of 1-8, second-worst in the league. Fixes are sitting right there: Purdy for Williams, Bowers for Brown — 17.8 points nobody's claimed yet.
Scored more than anyone in the league, went 9-0 all-play, and still left 31.4 real points on the bench doing it — Trevor Lawrence and Chuba Hubbard both outproduced whoever actually started at their spots. Won by 10.5 over the league's second-highest score, as clean a Week 1 as this league produced. Fix: Chuba Hubbard over Alec Pierce, 0.6 points, with Ladd McConkey and Pierce both Questionable this week.
Won Week 1 by 6.8 on the back of an offseason spent churning quarterbacks, and the model still isn't sold — 43.3% playoff odds, ninth of ten. All-play says 2-7: the win was earned on variance, not on the underlying numbers. One fix remains: Jordan Love over Bo Nix, 3.8 points, the last of the churn settling into place.
Lost by 21.7 and the model's patience is thinning — playoff odds down to 24.2%, finish-last risk up to 32.5%, both moving the wrong direction after an 0-1 start. Josh Allen still gives this team a puncher's chance most weeks, but a Questionable tag on Jalen Coker and a real fix sitting unclaimed (Kyle Monangai over Brian Robinson, 1.6 points) aren't helping this week. Thirteen games is still thirteen games.
Every move since the draft. Free agency is open — no waivers, no budget, first click wins. Green is a player arriving, red a player leaving; in a trade both sides are arrivals, so both are neutral.
| When | Who | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31 · 21:03 | Team Fawley | + Najee Harris · − Josh Jacobs | Hasn't started him yet. |
| Aug 31 · 21:51 | jfinau | + Tyler Loop · − James Conner | A starting back for a kicker. Move one of five. |
| Aug 31 · 21:59 | jfinau | + Jaguars D/ST · − Tua Tagovailoa | Quarterback purge, part one. |
| Sept 2 · 02:11 | jfinau ⇄ Fawley | Travis Kelce → jfinau · MarShawn Lloyd → FawleyTrade | A steal, and everyone knows it. |
| Sept 2 · 06:33 | She’sTheMann | + Khalil Shakir · − Jacory Croskey-Merritt | Held Croskey-Merritt for 48 hours. |
| Sept 4 · 11:49 | trevorh84 | + Jacory Croskey-Merritt · − Kenny Gainwell | Picked up the man She’sTheMann had just let go. |
| Sept 6 · 02:11 | Riot ⇄ trevorh84 | Jaylen Warren → trevorh84 · Jonathon Brooks → RiotTrade | Cleared review Sept 7. Warren is benched, Brooks is Questionable and starting. |
| Sept 8 · 13:16 | jfinau | + AJ Barner · − Kyler Murray | Part two. |
| Sept 8 · 13:19 | jfinau | + Tyler Allgeier · − C.J. Stroud | Three minutes later. Part three. Bo Nix stands alone. |
| Sept 12 · 05:53 | She’sTheMann | + Kenny Gainwell · − Khalil Shakir | Undoes the Sept 2 move. Shakir's back on the market. |
| Sept 13 · 12:37 | winniehartley | + Las Vegas D/ST · − Philadelphia D/ST | Cut their own Round 12 pick for a streaming option, kickoff day. |
Every team's optimal projected lineup as its weekly mean, 27-point standard deviation, played across the real 14-week schedule. Top six make it. Percentages sum to 600 and 100 respectively, which is how you know the model is playing fair.
| Team | Proj | Exp W | Odds | Playoff | Title | Finish last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| She’sTheMann | 139.9 | 8.4 | 87.1% | 21.8% | 1.3% | |
| trevorh84 | 136.8 | 8.1 | 82.8% | 16.6% | 2.1% | |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 133.3 | 7.5 | 70.9% | 10.7% | 4.6% | |
| winniehartley | 138.1 | 7.2 | 69.8% | 14.0% | 4.8% | |
| NoseyNabers | 137.9 | 7.3 | 67.5% | 13.0% | 5.5% | |
| Team Fawley | 127.2 | 6.8 | 53.5% | 5.0% | 10.4% | |
| H00dedWizard | 133.2 | 6.5 | 52.2% | 7.2% | 11.4% | |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 132.9 | 6.4 | 48.8% | 6.4% | 12.5% | |
| jfinau | 126.3 | 6.4 | 43.3% | 3.6% | 15.0% | |
| OldeRowanRiot | 125.2 | 5.4 | 24.2% | 1.8% | 32.5% |
Two things fall out, now that Week 1 is locked in rather than re-rolled. She’sTheMann and trevorh84 are running away with it early — 87.1% and 82.8% playoff odds apiece, both built on a real win plus a model that finally remembers it happened. And OldeRowanRiot's math got worse, not better — 24.2% to reach the playoffs against 32.5% to finish last, both moving the wrong direction after an 0-1 start. Thirteen games remain; treat Week 1 as a data point, not a verdict.
Week 1's picks went 3-2 — see The Ledger below for the receipts. Five new predictions for Week 2, timestamped before kickoff so they can be wrong in public again.
Four of the five sit under 56% again — same coin-flip league as last week. trevorh84's 61.9% over OldeRowanRiot is the only one that isn't, and it's a rematch of the same math that already has the Riot at 32.5% to finish last. Last week's version of this sentence went 3-2. Come back Tuesday and find out how this one aged.
Four numbers Sleeper computes for nobody, now that there's a played week to compute them from. Each settles an argument the standings can't.
| Team | Bench pts | All-play | Sched luck |
|---|---|---|---|
| H00dedWizard | 38.6 | 4-5 | 170.1 |
| Team Fawley | 31.4 | 9-0 | 173.8 |
| She’sTheMann | 28.9 | 6-3 | 146.3 |
| winniehartley | 24.6 | 8-1 | 184.2 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 19.5 | 3-6 | 168.0 |
| jfinau | 14.0 | 2-7 | 134.0 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 9.9 | 5-4 | 102.3 |
| NoseyNabers | 6.3 | 0-9 | 163.1 |
| trevorh84 | 4.9 | 7-2 | 147.7 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 3.6 | 1-8 | 140.8 |
Sorted worst bench first. H00dedWizard left 38.6 real points on the table and lost by 22.5 — the two numbers aren't unrelated. winniehartley's 8-1 all-play is the best record in the league by the honest measure and the worst by the one that counts. And NoseyNabers, down 0-9 all-play, still only owes schedule luck an apology — 163.1 points against isn't even the worst draw; that's Unauthorized Use of No. 5's problem to have, and they won anyway.
Running record: 3-2. Both misses picked the right side of a coin flip and lost; both hits were double-digit blowouts called in advance. New picks for Week 2 are above.