Week 2 flipped two teams' seasons in opposite directions. Team Fawley is 2-0 after beating jfinau by 10.08, and its playoff odds jumped from 53.5% to 94.1% — the single biggest swing in the league. Smallwood Retrievers is 0-2 after posting a new season-low 88.87, and its odds fell almost exactly as far the other way, 48.8% to 8.7%. In between, three teams that opened 0-1 won their way back to .500 — OldeRowanRiot, H00dedWizard and winniehartley all sit 1-1 now — and the picks went 2-3, dropping the season record to a dead-even 5-5.
Every score, and how last week's picks did against them.
The pick had NoseyNabers by 5.0 — right, by 31.63. Smallwood is now 0-2 with a new season-low score, and it's the same story as Week 1: Brock Purdy's 28.48 sat the bench behind Caleb Williams, exactly the swap this page flagged going in.
The tightest projection of the week — No. 5 favored by all of 0.1 — broke the other way. Jared Goff's 29.78 sat behind an inactive Jayden Daniels, a 19.6-point real bench gap that turned a coin flip into a loss.
The week's biggest swing by margin — She'sTheMann was favored by 1.8, and lost by 33.70. A 20.4-point real bench gap did some of the damage; the rest was just winniehartley's 152.76, its best output of the season so far.
The week's highest-confidence pick (61.9%) missed by the widest margin — trevorh84 favored by 11.6, lost by 27.62. OldeRowanRiot's first win did real work on the playoff model: odds jump from 24.2% to 53.6%, the second-largest single-week gain in the league.
Called correctly at 0.9, delivered at 10.08 — Team Fawley is the only unbeaten team left, and its playoff odds have gone from 53.5% to 94.1% in a single week, the largest swing on the page.
| Team | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 2-0 | 337.59 | 317.05 |
| winniehartley | 1-1 | 326.55 | 303.31 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 1-1 | 312.96 | 263.10 |
| H00dedWizard | 1-1 | 308.44 | 320.04 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 1-1 | 295.67 | 289.76 |
| trevorh84 | 1-1 | 291.87 | 297.02 |
| She’sTheMann | 1-1 | 287.09 | 299.08 |
| jfinau | 1-1 | 284.06 | 287.35 |
| NoseyNabers | 1-1 | 222.83 | 251.93 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 0-2 | 222.88 | 261.30 |
Best actual starts, and the bench decisions that'll sting longest.
| Started | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR | jfinau | 42.5 |
| Josh Allen, QB | OldeRowanRiot | 40.8 |
| Davante Adams, WR | NoseyNabers | 39.5 |
| CeeDee Lamb, WR | H00dedWizard | 35.3 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 35.2 |
| Benched | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff, QB | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 29.8 |
| Brock Purdy, QB | Smallwood Retrievers | 28.5 |
| Matthew Stafford, QB | NoseyNabers | 28.0 |
| Dalton Kincaid, TE | OldeRowanRiot | 22.5 |
| Tyler Shough, QB | winniehartley | 22.4 |
Unauthorized Use of No. 5 and Smallwood Retrievers both had a quarterback outscore everything else on their bench — Jared Goff's 29.78 sat behind an Out Jayden Daniels, and Brock Purdy's 28.48 sat behind Caleb Williams, exactly the swap this page recommended a week ago.
Ranked on Week 3's projected points, which is why the order differs from the odds table further down. All-play and bench gap are both through Week 2 — the honest record and the honest coaching grade.
Lost by 27.6 in Week 2 and still projects highest of anyone for Week 3 — 148.5, the top mark in the league. Playoff odds actually rose to 90.1% despite the loss; the model weighs the 8.5 points a week this roster keeps generating more than one bad Sunday against OldeRowanRiot. One fix on the table: Jaylen Warren over Jacory Croskey-Merritt, 3.1 points.
Bounced back from the Week 1 injustice with a 33.70-point win, the largest margin of Week 2, and playoff odds followed — 69.8% to 86.6%. All-play is the best real record in the league at 15-3. Fix: Parker Washington over Matthew Golden, 4.6 points.
The only 2-0 team left, an all-play record of 17-1 that's actually true to its results for once, and a real Week 2 bench gap of 0.0 — nothing left on the table. Playoff odds jumped from 53.5% to 94.1%, the single largest swing in the league this week. Two small fixes remain: Trevor Lawrence over Joe Burrow (1.6 points) and Ladd McConkey over MarShawn Lloyd (4.1).
The Week 1 injustice's mirror image: lost by 33.70 in Week 2, and playoff odds fell from 87.1% to 68.3%. Dallas Goedert managed zero points and is Questionable again this week — Michael Wilson over him is worth 12.3 points, the single biggest fix on the board.
Won by 10.87 to snap an 0-1 start, with the second-cleanest bench in the league — only 5.2 real points left on the table. Playoff odds climbed nearly ten points, 52.2% to 62.1%, and all-play sits 13-5, third-best. Mike Evans is Questionable for Week 3; the only fix on the board barely moves the needle, Travis Etienne over Emeka Egbuka for 0.3 points.
The second-largest single-week playoff-odds gain in the league — 24.2% to 53.6% — on the back of a 27.62-point win, but the bench tells a rougher story: 32.5 real points left on the table, second-worst in the league. Jonathon Brooks is Questionable again and projects at zero; Aaron Jones over him is worth 12.8 points alone, plus Saquon Barkley over Kyle Monangai (9.2) and Dalton Schultz over Khalil Shakir (0.3).
Lost the tightest projection of the week by 10.87, and playoff odds fell from 70.9% to 52.9%. Jayden Daniels is Out again and projects at zero; starting Jared Goff instead was already worth 19.6 real points in Week 2, and the same fix — now 19.8 points — is still sitting there for Week 3, alongside Zay Flowers over Juwan Johnson (6.7).
Lost by 10.08 despite Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 42.50, the single best start anyone had in Week 2 — the rest of the roster just didn't show up behind it. Playoff odds ticked up slightly to 45.6%, still ninth of ten. The Bo Nix/Jordan Love seesaw continues: this page had Love over Nix in Week 1, now it's Nix over Love, worth 2.1 points.
Won by 31.63 and still saw playoff odds fall further than anyone else in the league — 67.5% to 38.1% — because three starters are banged up heading into Week 3: Nico Collins, Rico Dowdle and Puka Nacua are all Out. The real bench gap was the worst of anyone this week, 37.6 points. Small fixes remain — George Kittle over Davante Adams (1.5), TreVeyon Henderson over Colston Loveland (3.4) — but the injury report is the bigger problem.
0-2, a new season-low 88.87 in Week 2, and playoff odds down to 8.7% — the largest single-week collapse in the league, 48.8% to 8.7%. This page had Brock Purdy over Caleb Williams flagged for that game, and Smallwood started Williams anyway. This week's fixes are smaller: DJ Moore over Marvin Harrison (4.5 points) and Brock Bowers over Terry McLaurin (3.3).
Every move since the last edition. Free agency is open — no waivers, no budget, first click wins. Green is a player arriving, red a player leaving; in a trade both sides are arrivals, so both are neutral.
| When | Who | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 16 · 03:05 | Smallwood Retrievers | + Deebo Samuel | Same-second claim as No. 5's below — Smallwood's had priority. |
| Sept 16 · 03:05 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | Deebo Samuel claim failed | Lost the tiebreak to Smallwood, to the millisecond. |
| Sept 16 · 07:15 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | + Kaelon Black | Consolation pickup, four hours later. |
| Sept 16 · 18:33 | OldeRowanRiot | + Aaron Jones · − Sam Darnold | First of four moves in five minutes. |
| Sept 16 · 18:34 | OldeRowanRiot | + Dalton Schultz · − Jake Ferguson | Second. |
| Sept 16 · 18:36 | OldeRowanRiot | + Khalil Shakir · − Makai Lemon | Third. |
| Sept 16 · 18:37 | OldeRowanRiot | + Matt Gay · − Jason Myers | Fourth. A full bench reset in five minutes flat. |
| Sept 17 · 08:09 | trevorh84 | + Tampa Bay Buccaneers · − Blake Corum | A defense swap for the roster now projecting highest in the league. |
| Sept 18 · 16:46 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | + Xavier Hutchinson | No corresponding drop — an open bench spot. |
Every team's optimal projected lineup as its weekly mean, 27-point standard deviation, played across the real 14-week schedule. Top six make it. Percentages sum to 600 and 100 respectively, which is how you know the model is playing fair.
| Team | Proj | Exp W | Odds | Playoff | Title | Finish last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 144.0 | 9.1 | 94.1% | 22.1% | 0.3% | |
| trevorh84 | 148.5 | 8.5 | 90.1% | 25.3% | 0.5% | |
| winniehartley | 144.5 | 8.2 | 86.6% | 18.9% | 1.0% | |
| She’sTheMann | 139.7 | 7.2 | 68.3% | 9.6% | 3.4% | |
| H00dedWizard | 136.2 | 7.0 | 62.1% | 6.6% | 4.8% | |
| OldeRowanRiot | 135.0 | 6.6 | 53.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 134.9 | 6.6 | 52.9% | 5.0% | 6.6% | |
| jfinau | 133.5 | 6.3 | 45.6% | 4.0% | 9.2% | |
| NoseyNabers | 132.4 | 6.2 | 38.1% | 2.9% | 12.8% | |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 126.0 | 4.4 | 8.7% | 0.4% | 54.7% |
Two swings dominate this week, and they're close to mirror images. Team Fawley's odds jumped 53.5% to 94.1% on a 2-0 start; Smallwood Retrievers fell almost exactly as far the other way, 48.8% to 8.7%, on an 0-2 one. The stranger move belongs to NoseyNabers, who won its game and still dropped further than anyone — 67.5% to 38.1% — because three starters are banged up heading into Week 3. Twelve games remain; two weeks is still a small sample.
Week 2's picks went 2-3 — see The Ledger below for the receipts. Five new predictions for Week 3, timestamped before kickoff so they can be wrong in public again.
More separation than usual this week — three of five clear 53%, and winniehartley's 68.6% over Smallwood is the surest call the model's made all season, for the team it just watched post a season-low score. Last week's version of this sentence went 2-3. Come back Tuesday and find out how this one aged.
Four numbers Sleeper computes for nobody, updated with a second played week.
| Team | Bench pts | All-play | Sched luck |
|---|---|---|---|
| NoseyNabers | 37.6 | 2-16 | 251.9 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 33.4 | 1-17 | 261.3 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 32.5 | 8-10 | 289.8 |
| She’sTheMann | 20.4 | 7-11 | 299.1 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 19.6 | 11-7 | 263.1 |
| winniehartley | 16.5 | 15-3 | 303.3 |
| jfinau | 9.1 | 6-12 | 287.4 |
| trevorh84 | 6.1 | 10-8 | 297.0 |
| H00dedWizard | 5.2 | 13-5 | 320.0 |
| Team Fawley | 0.0 | 17-1 | 317.0 |
Sorted worst bench first. NoseyNabers left 37.6 real points on the table and still won by 31.6 — the worst bench-management week anyone's had this season, on a win instead of a loss. Team Fawley's 17-1 all-play record is the best anyone's posted, and for once it matches their actual 2-0 start. And H00dedWizard has faced 320.0 points through two weeks, the toughest schedule draw in the league, and still sits 1-1 regardless.
Running record: 5-5. Two blowout misses and a coin flip — the season's picks are now break-even, same as the standings underneath them. New picks for Week 3 are above.