Week 4 left one team unbeaten by 0.36 points and one team winless on the second-highest score in the league. Team Fawley is 4-0 after 154.32 to 153.96 over NoseyNabers, the closest game of the season; Smallwood Retrievers is 0-4 after a 162.67, the best score of its year, that only H00dedWizard's 171.94 beat. The picks went 4-1 for the second week running and the season stands at 13-7. jfinau's 114.09 took its playoff odds from 73.6% to 55.0%, the biggest drop in the league; Unauthorized Use of No. 5 went from 81.8% to 96.8%, the biggest gain. And Tetairoa McMillan scored 45.2 on winniehartley's bench.
Every score, and how last week's picks did against them.
The pick had H00dedWizard by 15.8 — right, by 9.27. Its 171.94 was the high score of the week and the third-highest of the season, led by CeeDee Lamb's 41.3, the best start in the league. Smallwood Retrievers posted 162.67, the best score of its year and the second-best of the week, and is 0-4: it out-scored eight of the nine other teams and lost to the ninth.
The surest call of the week, No. 5 by 17.3, landed by 22.55. Kyren Williams's 36.7 was the second-best start in the league, and No. 5 is 3-1 with the fewest points against (528.15). OldeRowanRiot left 59.5 points on its bench, the most in the league this week and more than the margin it lost by. Brian Robinson, whom the Week 4 Slate told it to sit for Dalton Schultz (2.9), scored 25.7 there.
Called by 4.2, delivered by 0.36 — the closest game of the season, where the previous closest was 6.79. Team Fawley is 4-0, the only unbeaten team left, and got there starting Ladd McConkey, who scored 0.0, with Carnell Tate's 21.5 on the bench — the swap this page flagged. NoseyNabers posted 153.96, its best score of the year, with Nico Collins (30.8) and Puka Nacua (27.7) both in the lineup, and is still 1-3.
Picked by 10.8, delivered by 29.47. jfinau's 114.09 was the fourth-lowest score of the season: Rashee Rice started and scored 0.0, Travis Kelce 3.5. winniehartley won with the eighth-best score of the week because it left Tetairoa McMillan's 45.2 on the bench, the highest score by any player on any roster this week.
The week's only missed pick. trevorh84 was favored by 11.1 and lost by 16.54 to a She'sTheMann team that scored 160.94, the third-best of the week, with Bijan Robinson's 27.7 and 21.5 from Bryce Young on its bench. trevorh84 is 1-3 and projects highest in the league for the second week running; Jameson Williams's 16.2 sat behind Jeremiyah Love's 6.5.
| Team | Record | PF | PA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 4-0 | 637.19 | 564.36 |
| winniehartley | 3-1 | 626.30 | 564.93 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 3-1 | 608.77 | 528.15 |
| She’sTheMann | 3-1 | 596.63 | 574.88 |
| H00dedWizard | 2-2 | 611.78 | 631.31 |
| jfinau | 2-2 | 559.45 | 560.60 |
| trevorh84 | 1-3 | 574.77 | 604.67 |
| OldeRowanRiot | 1-3 | 515.57 | 584.14 |
| NoseyNabers | 1-3 | 506.48 | 567.55 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 0-4 | 533.08 | 589.43 |
Best actual starts, and the bench decisions that'll sting longest.
| Started | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb, WR | H00dedWizard | 41.3 |
| Kyren Williams, RB | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 36.7 |
| Javonte Williams, RB | Smallwood Retrievers | 31.3 |
| Kenneth Walker, RB | winniehartley | 30.9 |
| Nico Collins, WR | NoseyNabers | 30.8 |
| Benched | Team | Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tetairoa McMillan, WR | winniehartley | 45.2 |
| Brian Robinson, RB | OldeRowanRiot | 25.7 |
| Kirk Cousins, QB | trevorh84 | 23.6 |
| Keon Coleman, WR | OldeRowanRiot | 23.6 |
| Carnell Tate, WR | Team Fawley | 21.5 |
Tetairoa McMillan's 45.2 is the biggest score on the page, started or benched — 3.9 more than CeeDee Lamb's 41.3, the best start. OldeRowanRiot owns two of the five bench entries, and Carnell Tate is a repeat from the Slate. The Week 4 Slate's calls, scored: Nico Collins and Puka Nacua for NoseyNabers (30.8, 27.7), Zay Flowers for No. 5 (25.8) and Michael Wilson for She'sTheMann (16.5) were right. Dalton Schultz over Brian Robinson (2.9 against 25.7), Ladd McConkey for Team Fawley (0.0) and Luther Burden over Jameson Williams for trevorh84 (11.4 against 16.2) were wrong, and all three were followed.
Ranked on Week 5's projected points, which is why the order differs from the odds table further down. All-play and bench gap are both through Week 4 — the honest record and the honest coaching grade. Kansas City and Carolina are on bye this week, which is why several of the fixes below are bye-week fixes.
Lost to She'sTheMann by 16.54 and is 1-3, with playoff odds down 80.1% to 65.9%. It projects highest in the league for Week 5 (144.9) for the second week running, and the pick on this team is now 1-3. Jameson Williams's 16.2 sat on the bench behind a Questionable Jeremiyah Love's 6.5. Justin Jefferson, a 0.0 on the bench last week, is back in the best lineup: Jefferson and Williams over Luther Burden and Jacory Croskey-Merritt is worth 7.7.
Beat OldeRowanRiot 149.10 to 126.55 and is 3-1 with the fewest points against in the league (528.15). Odds went 81.8% to 96.8%, the largest gain, and its 24.1% title chance is now the best on the board. But 40.0 real points sat on the bench: RJ Harvey (19.3), Rhamondre Stevenson (18.4) and Ollie Gordon (18.0) all out-scored the Saquon Barkley (2.0), Josh Downs (4.6) and Tyler Warren (9.1) who started. Barkley is Out again; Stevenson, Gordon and Harvey over Barkley, Downs and Juwan Johnson is worth 8.1.
Beat jfinau by 29.47 with 44.3 points on the bench, and Tetairoa McMillan's 45.2 was most of it — the highest score on any roster this week. Odds slipped 96.6% to 95.5% on a win. Kyle Pitts (7.7) sat behind Darren Waller (6.6), the Mark Andrews replacement. Week 5 is a bye-week problem: Kenneth Walker (Kansas City) and Waller (Carolina) are both off, and Bucky Irving and Kenyon Sadiq over them is worth 23.7, the biggest gap on the Slate.
4-0, the only unbeaten team, by 0.36. It started Ladd McConkey (0.0) and benched Carnell Tate (21.5), and still won; the Giants defense it picked up Saturday scored 27.1, the best defense score on any roster. Odds 98.1% to 98.9%, still the best in the league, and its 27-9 all-play is the best too. McConkey and Ja'Marr Chase are both Out this week — and Sleeper still projects Chase at 17.4, which is baked into the 132.8. Breece Hall, Tate and Pittsburgh's defense over Chuba Hubbard (bye), McConkey and the Giants is worth 18.3.
Posted 171.94, the week's high score, and beat Smallwood by 9.27; CeeDee Lamb's 41.3 was the best start in the league. It is 2-2 and has faced the hardest schedule in it (631.31 points against). Odds went 71.7% to 84.6%. Isaiah Likely's 13.6 sat behind Emeka Egbuka's 3.3, a real gap of 10.3. Patrick Mahomes is on bye, so Justin Herbert starts: Herbert and Likely over Mahomes and Egbuka is worth 16.5. Tee Higgins is Questionable.
Lost by 0.36 with 153.96, its best score of the year, and Nico Collins (30.8) and Puka Nacua (27.7) both started, as the Slate asked. Still 1-3. Odds more than doubled, 6.8% to 14.0% — the model counts the points, not the loss. Rome Odunze (15.4) and Colston Loveland (11.7) sat behind Davante Adams (7.2) and TreVeyon Henderson (4.2), a real gap of 15.7. Its 8-28 all-play is the worst in the league by one win. The Week 5 roster is close to what it can be: Rico Dowdle over Omarion Hampton is worth 0.8.
114.09, the fourth-lowest score of the season, and a 29.47-point loss: odds fell 73.6% to 55.0%, the biggest drop in the league. Rashee Rice started and scored 0.0; Travis Kelce scored 3.5. Jordan Love (14.1) edged Bo Nix (13.6), so the seesaw this page keeps flagging broke the other way. Both Kelce and Rice are on bye, and Nix, Keaton Mitchell and AJ Barner over Love, Kelce and Rice is worth 19.1.
Beat trevorh84 160.94 to 144.40, the pick that missed, and is 3-1. Odds still dipped 82.7% to 81.3% on a win — playoff spots are zero-sum, and No. 5 and H00dedWizard gained 28 points between them. Bryce Young's 21.5 and Jaylen Waddle's 14.5 sat on the bench; Tyreek Hill, picked up Oct 1, scored 0.0 there. It has no quarterback this week: Lamar Jackson (Questionable) and Jaxson Dart project 0.0 and Young is on bye. Jacoby Brissett, a free agent, is worth 18.3 on the Slate.
0-4 with 162.67, its best score of the year and the second-best of the week; it beat eight of the nine other teams on points and lost to the ninth. Its four losses are by 6.79, 31.63, 8.66 and 9.27. All-play this week was 8-1; for the season it's 15-21. Odds 2.6% to 4.8%, finish-last 34.3%. Hunter Henry's 11.2 sat on the bench; Terry McLaurin, whom the Slate told it to start last week, scored 0.0 on the bench. McLaurin over a Questionable DJ Moore is back on the board, worth 0.9.
Lost by 22.55 and left 59.5 points on its bench, the largest gap in the league. Brian Robinson (25.7), Keon Coleman (23.6) and Devaughn Vele (17.4) all sat behind Tank Bigsby (5.5), DeVonta Smith (0.0) and Dalton Kincaid (1.7). Vele was Thursday's pickup for Emanuel Wilson, who is a free agent again. 1-3, odds 5.9% to 3.1%, and a 47.6% chance of finishing last, the highest in the league. It projects 106.8 for Week 5, nearly sixteen points below the next-lowest team.
Every move since the last blotter ended on Sept 25 — which includes five from Sept 27–29 that last week's edition never listed. Free agency is open — no waivers, no budget, first click wins. Green is a player arriving, red a player leaving. Times are Eastern; a same-minute add and drop is shown as one move.
| When | Who | Move | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept 27 · 19:25 | She’sTheMann | + Sam Darnold · − Jadarian Price | Missed by last week's edition. Darnold was gone four days later. |
| Sept 29 · 06:13 | Team Fawley | + Alvin Kamara · − Najee Harris | Also missed last week. Kamara lasted until Saturday. |
| Sept 29 · 06:14 | Team Fawley | + Pittsburgh Steelers · − San Francisco 49ers | A minute later: the Friday defense swap, reversed. |
| Sept 29 · 09:03 | winniehartley | + Las Vegas Raiders · − Carolina Panthers | Undoes the Sept 23 defense swap. |
| Sept 29 · 09:06 | winniehartley | + Kenyon Sadiq · − Tre Tucker | Tucker had been added six days earlier. |
| Sept 29 · 20:54 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | − De'Von Achane | The IR starter this page flagged is gone. |
| Sept 29 · 20:55 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | − De'Zhaun Stribling | A second drop, no add. |
| Sept 29 · 20:56 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | + Blake Corum | Won the waiver claim. Corum had already been added and dropped once, by She'sTheMann. |
| Sept 30 · 06:56 | trevorh84 | + Kirk Cousins · − Michael Pittman | Cousins scored 23.6 on the bench; Drake Maye started. |
| Sept 30 · 08:12 | OldeRowanRiot | − Jonah Coleman | Added Sept 23, dropped a week later. |
| Sept 30 · 18:11 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | − Kaelon Black | Drop only. |
| Sept 30 · 20:25 | Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | + Ollie Gordon · − Blake Corum | Corum lasted a day. Gordon scored 18.0 on the bench. |
| Oct 1 · 19:09 | She’sTheMann | + Tyreek Hill · − Sam Darnold | Hill scored 0.0, on the bench. |
| Oct 1 · 19:24 | trevorh84 | + Kalif Raymond · − Tony Pollard | Raymond scored 2.6, on the bench. |
| Oct 1 · 20:19 | winniehartley | + Darren Waller · − Mark Andrews | Andrews had been Questionable. Waller started and scored 6.6. |
| Oct 1 · 20:22 | OldeRowanRiot | + Devaughn Vele · − Emanuel Wilson | Vele scored 17.4 — on the bench. Wilson is a free agent again. |
| Oct 3 · 15:08 | Team Fawley | + New York Giants · − Alvin Kamara | The Giants defense scored 27.1, the best on any roster. |
| Oct 3 · 19:34 | trevorh84 | + Spencer Shrader · − Tampa Bay Buccaneers | A kicker for a defense, a minute apart. Shrader scored 16.0. |
| Oct 3 · 19:34 | Smallwood Retrievers | + Buffalo Bills · − New England Patriots | The Bills defense scored 16.6. |
| Oct 4 · 05:20 | winniehartley | + Will Reichard · − Ka'imi Fairbairn | Reichard scored 19.0, the team's second-best starter. |
Every team's optimal projected lineup as its weekly mean, 27-point standard deviation, played across the real 14-week schedule. Top six make it. Percentages sum to 600 and 100 respectively, which is how you know the model is playing fair.
Same method as last week: each team's mean is a 50/50 blend of its optimal projection and what it has actually scored, so every change below is the week, not the model.
| Team | Proj | Exp W | Odds | Playoff | Title | Finish last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team Fawley | 132.8 | 10.0 | 98.9% | 23.7% | 0.0% | |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 144.4 | 9.2 | 96.8% | 24.1% | 0.0% | |
| winniehartley | 134.6 | 9.0 | 95.5% | 19.0% | 0.0% | |
| H00dedWizard | 132.4 | 7.8 | 84.6% | 11.7% | 0.3% | |
| She’sTheMann | 124.5 | 7.8 | 81.3% | 7.3% | 0.3% | |
| trevorh84 | 144.9 | 6.8 | 65.9% | 9.1% | 1.2% | |
| jfinau | 131.6 | 6.7 | 55.0% | 4.2% | 1.6% | |
| NoseyNabers | 132.2 | 5.0 | 14.0% | 0.6% | 14.6% | |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 122.6 | 3.9 | 4.8% | 0.2% | 34.3% | |
| OldeRowanRiot | 106.8 | 3.8 | 3.1% | 0.0% | 47.6% |
Two drops and two climbs. jfinau fell 73.6% to 55.0% after a 29.47-point loss and trevorh84 80.1% to 65.9% — the only teams to lose more than five points. Unauthorized Use of No. 5 rose 81.8% to 96.8% and H00dedWizard 71.7% to 84.6%. NoseyNabers more than doubled, 6.8% to 14.0%, on a 0.36-point loss and its best score of the year. No. 5's 24.1% title chance now edges Team Fawley's 23.7%. OldeRowanRiot has a 47.6% chance of finishing last. Ten games remain.
Week 4's picks went 4-1, the second straight 4-1 week — see The Ledger below for the receipts. Five new predictions for Week 5, timestamped before kickoff so they can be wrong in public again.
The surest call is H00dedWizard over OldeRowanRiot at 74.9%; the closest is winniehartley over NoseyNabers, 2.4 points, 52.5%. Kansas City and Carolina are on bye, so these lean on a lot of replacement lineups, and Team Fawley's number includes 17.4 for Ja'Marr Chase, who is Out — Sleeper hasn't zeroed him yet, so the G1 pick is softer than it looks. Eight of the last ten picks were hits, which is more than the model has earned. Come back Tuesday and find out how this one aged.
Four numbers Sleeper computes for nobody, updated with a fourth played week.
| Team | Bench pts | All-play | Sched luck |
|---|---|---|---|
| OldeRowanRiot | 59.5 | 9-27 | 584.1 |
| winniehartley | 44.3 | 25-11 | 564.9 |
| Unauthorized Use of No. 5 | 40.0 | 20-16 | 528.1 |
| Team Fawley | 21.5 | 27-9 | 564.4 |
| NoseyNabers | 15.7 | 8-28 | 567.5 |
| jfinau | 14.7 | 15-21 | 560.6 |
| H00dedWizard | 10.3 | 24-12 | 631.3 |
| She’sTheMann | 9.7 | 21-15 | 574.9 |
| trevorh84 | 9.7 | 16-20 | 604.7 |
| Smallwood Retrievers | 8.5 | 15-21 | 589.4 |
Sorted worst bench first. OldeRowanRiot left 59.5 points on its Week 4 bench, winniehartley 44.3 and Unauthorized Use of No. 5 40.0 — the last two won anyway, and winniehartley's total is mostly one player, Tetairoa McMillan's 45.2. Team Fawley's 27-9 all-play is now the best in the league, ahead of winniehartley's 25-11, and NoseyNabers' 8-28 is the worst, by one win over OldeRowanRiot's 9-27. H00dedWizard has now faced 631.3 points, 26.6 more than anyone else, while Unauthorized Use of No. 5 has faced the softest schedule, 528.1.
Running record: 13-7. A second straight 4-1 week moves the season from three games over break-even to six. The one miss was a trevorh84 pick again — with trevorh84 as the favorite, the picks are 1-3 on the season. New picks for Week 5 are above.